A Simple Truth

Found an opinion piece from the Washington Post called “Wake Up, America. We’re Driving Toward Disaster.” Some of you might think some of the news items cited in this blog are overwrought gloom and doom prognostications. And, it may be true that some of the predictions the authors make may tend toward extreme extrapolations of our current situation. 

However let’s look at a simple truth: any disruption in the supply or availability of oil will affect all aspects of our lives. The article by James Howard Kunstler cited above states this clearly:

The public, and especially the mainstream media, misunderstands the “peak oil” story. It’s not about running out of oil. It’s about the instabilities that will shake the complex systems of daily life as soon as the global demand for oil exceeds the global supply. These systems can be listed concisely:

The way we produce food

The way we conduct commerce and trade

The way we travel

The way we occupy the land

The way we acquire and spend capital

And there are others: governance, health care, education and more.

As the world passes the all-time oil production high and watches as the price of a barrel of oil busts another record, as it did last week, these systems will run into trouble. Instability in one sector will bleed into another. Shocks to the oil markets will hurt trucking, which will slow commerce and food distribution, manufacturing and the tourist industry in a chain of cascading effects. Problems in finance will squeeze any enterprise that requires capital, including oil exploration and production, as well as government spending. These systems are all interrelated. They all face a crisis.

The current rise in oil prices may be due more to speculation than shortages or supply issues but, really, it doesn’t matter. As a world we are now in a situation where the strands of commerce, trade and production that interconnect us (imagine a mandala of rubber bands all stretched taut) are getting pulled pretty tight. Any little vibration resonates throughout the entire interconnected system. This situation will not ease anytime soon. In fact, the stress on these strands will most surely increase due in no small part to the ascendancy of China and India.

The question is, are we going to wait for conditions to force us to make changes in the way we produce food, the way we conduct commerce and trade, the way we travel, the way we occupy the land, the way we acquire and spend capital, etc. or are we going to embrace the opportunity to proactively re-design the way we engage these activities.

In his article Kunstler chides Americans for their child-like attachment to wishful thinking. Americans are optimists and recently that optimism has revealed itself in some pretty shallow practices like those arising from the escapist idiocy being stoked by the The Secret. Still, that optimism, if grounded in an understanding and acceptance of the complex and dynamic systemic realities confronting us can, I believe, still be quite magical. As Kunstler says:

We cannot afford to remain befuddled and demoralized. But we must understand that hope is not something applied externally. Real hope resides within us. We generate it — by proving that we are competent, earnest individuals who can discern between wishing and doing, who don’t figure on getting something for nothing and who can be honest about the way the universe really works.

We can still have hope, still dream and wish for better times but we can’t stop there. We have to let that intrinsic desire to be and live well manifest itself in informed, well-timed and thoughtful action. The logic behind that action is also key.

We have to evolve our understanding of the world from one of linear cause and effect that can be controlled to an understanding of the world of interconnected open, complex systems that can, at best, be influenced. And, we’re going to have to learn to live and act lightly, coherent with the systems that support and sustain us.

You want a simple truth? We’re not in control, never have been, never will be. Deal with it and remember the rubber band mandala. 

Tags: capacity evolution, leadership capacity, peak oil, sustainability